Tropical Storm Idalia Will Affect Florida Weather
Tropical Storm Idalia has been drifting south overnight, a little more than originally forecast. Winds are estimated at 35mph and pressure 1001mb.
Recon will be in the Tropical storm later this morning and that data will be put into model runs later today, which should give us more accurate runs on track and intensity in Florida Weather.
The concerning development for the Tallahassee area due to Tropical Storm Idalia, is that after trending a little east overnight, models trended back west AND intensity has trended upwards. The new NHC track was nudged back west a little and intensity increased, and I think the intensity increases are not over by any means. This is reflected in the official NHC discussion which states: “ There’s a notable risk of rapid intensification while the system moves across the record warm eastern and northeastern Gulf of Mexico, which is highlighted by the recent HAFS and HWRF guidance.” Those are hurricane-specific intensity models and they really got my attention this morning. This is why I said earlier that a storm entering the Gulf in late August with nothing but record hot water and moderate shear ahead of it has me highly concerned.
Track and intensity will come into much better focus once recon gathers data and the storm starts moving into the Gulf instead of away from us. The bottom line is this needs to be taken VERY seriously and everyone should be making Hurricane preparations today.
Weather Orlando
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Weather Destin
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Weather Bradenton
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Weather Jupiter
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Weather Key West
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